DRAM Shortage Persists Through 2027 as NVIDIA Evaluates Reduced HBM Configurations

Persistent DRAM shortages through 2027 and HBM4e certification delays prompt NVIDIA to reassess Rubin Ultra specs, potentially lowering stack layers amid supply constraints.

Woofun AI reports that TrendForce data indicates a DRAM supply shortage expected to continue through 2027, complicating HBM4e certification timelines. NVIDIA has been reviewing lower-spec alternatives for the Rubin Ultra since the third quarter of 2026, shifting from a baseline 12-layer stacked HBM4e design to parallel evaluations of 8-layer and HBM4 configurations.

TrendForce attributes this shift to wafer capacity limits and yield uncertainties, noting that NVIDIA prioritizes I/O speed improvements over shipment volume. While HBM bit shipments are projected to grow 50% to 60% year-over-year in 2027, supply is expected to lag demand, sustaining pricing power for suppliers. Consequently, AI chip makers face rising procurement costs, incentivizing reduced HBM capacity in next-generation custom ASICs.