Goldman Sachs Deems September Fed Hike 'Very Unlikely', Boosting Bitcoin Outlook

Woofun AI reports that Goldman Sachs characterized a potential September Federal Reserve interest-rate increase as 'very unlikely,' a stance that injects bullish sentiment into the bitcoin (BTC) market. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius communicated this assessment to clients via Bloomberg, noting that current market pricing for the funds rate remains excessively hawkish relative to baseline economic forecasts.

The cryptocurrency is currently priced around $63,500, reflecting a 1% gain since midnight UTC.

Structurally, the asset has remained confined within a $62,000–$66,000 trading range that has persisted for over a month, dating back to early July. This consolidation phase highlights a period of indecision among traders despite the broader macroeconomic signals.

Notably, Goldman Sachs lowered its probability estimates in response to a series of soft economic indicators, including retail sales and employment figures, alongside slowing inflation.

The deeper driver is the historical correlation between monetary policy and risk assets; rate hikes traditionally suppress demand, as seen during the 2022 slide triggered by aggressive Fed tightening. Conversely, rate cuts are viewed as bullish, echoing the rally following the March 2020 Covid crash.

Woofun AI data shows that traders are currently pricing in just a 30.6% chance of a 25 basis points hike to the 3.75%–4% range.

The decline in hike probabilities followed last week's July report, which confirmed that inflation was slowing as expected. This alignment of data and expectation suggests that the market is gradually accepting a more dovish trajectory. One editorial judgment is that this shift marks a critical inflection point for liquidity-sensitive assets.