Analysis of Token Flow on Stablecoin Chains (Issue 4 · Week 31, 2026)

01Market Value and Rankings of Stablecoins

July 31, 2026, serves as the data benchmark date. The stablecoin market exhibits a divergence between shrinking total volume and increasing transaction efficiency. USDT maintains its leading position with a market value of $184B, a current price of $0.999, and 24-hour trading volume of $41.3B; USDC has a market value of $72B, a current price of $0.9997, and 24-hour trading volume of $10.5B; DAI boasts a market value of $5B, a current price of $0.9997, and 24-hour trading volume of $182.3M. Although the total market value of stablecoins has declined, trading volumes have reached record highs, with capital flow shifting from idle holding to high-frequency transactions.

Institutional involvement is accelerating and reshaping the competitive landscape. Visa released its financial report on July 30, showing net revenue of $11.6 billion. The company allocated $563 million to AI and stablecoin infrastructure development, using its VSP platform to manage settlement channels rather than issuing tokens, thereby avoiding risks through service-based models. On the same day, OUSD, an institutional stablecoin backed by over 140 companies including Visa and BlackRock, announced its launch on Ethereum, aiming to bridge traditional finance and DeFi. Coinbase reported Q2 revenue of $1.22 billion on July 31, with USDC holdings exceeding $20 billion and its BTC spot market share rising to 10.3%.

In terms of operational efficiency, Tether achieved profits of $10.09 billion with a team of just 300 people, eliminating the need for manual risk control through automated processes. Regarding regulation and risks, SEC commissioners warned on July 29 that blockchain wallets may violate securities laws, putting $25.9 billion in total value locked into these wallets under regulatory scrutiny. The discount of STRC has put assets worth nearly $500 million held by Apyx and Saturn under pressure, highlighting risks associated with synthetic dollars losing their peg. Additionally, USDT on the TRON chain remains a key tool for money laundering, with UNODC reports indicating that fraud losses in Southeast Asia range from $88.3 billion to $114.1 billion.

02Exchange Flow Analysis

Benchmark date: 2026-07-31

Institutional funds showed a significant net inflow. Coinbase released its Q2 financial report on July 31, 2026, revealing that the holdings of USDC exceeded $20 billion, while BTC holdings rose to 17,000 coins. These figures indicate that institutions are using centralized exchanges to hold stablecoin assets, with USDC serving as the primary settlement currency to support high-frequency payment scenarios. On July 30, 2026, Visa announced its joining of the OpenUSD alliance, integrating Pismo technology through its VSP platform and controlling settlement channels via service fees rather than issuing tokens directly. OUSD, an institutional stablecoin backed by over 140 companies, was launched on Ethereum on the same day, aiming to bridge traditional finance and DeFi.

Retail and leveraged investors faced severe losses. On July 28, 2026, abnormal transactions on South Korea’s NXT led to distorted pricing by Oracle, causing the Hyperliquid SKHX contract to collapse abruptly, with over $128 million in liquidations occurring within just 4 hours. This incident highlighted the extreme vulnerability of leveraged positions among retail investors under the combined impact of macroeconomic headwinds and on-chain risks. Although the total market value of stablecoins declined, trading volume surged as funds shifted from idle states to high-frequency payments. The GENIUS bill further drove capital toward tokenized government bonds. The risk of de-anchoring of DeFi synthetic dollars increased, with the sharp drop in Strategy preferred stocks putting approximately $500 million in assets held by Apyx and Saturn under pressure, underscoring the systemic risks associated with high-leverage mechanisms in extreme market conditions. Overall, the flow of funds indicated that institutions favored compliant settlement channels, while retail leveraged positions continued to diminish amid volatile price movements.

03Distribution of Stablecoins across Different Chains

Benchmark date: 2026-07-31. The stablecoin market is highly concentrated, with USDT holding an absolute dominant position due to its $184B market value, followed by USDC with a market value of $72B. Together, these two tokens account for over 80% of the total market value. The current price of USDT is $0.999, with a 24-hour trading volume of $41.3B, giving it significantly better liquidity compared to USDC (current price $0.9997, 24-hour trading volume $10.5B). DAI has a market value of $5B and a 24-hour trading volume of $182.3M, indicating a relatively smaller scale and primarily serving decentralized finance use cases.

The distribution of stablecoins across different chains reflects variations in network activity. The total DeFi TVL across the top 5 chains is $60.3B, indicating that the major public chains carry most of the stablecoin value. The high trading volume of USDT suggests its central role in cross-chain transactions and over-the-counter settlements, while USDC is frequently used in transactions between compliant institutions. The low trading volume of DAI is related to its algorithmic stabilization mechanism and reliance on specific ecosystems. The overall market sentiment, as measured by the AI sentiment score, is 43/100, indicating a fearful mood that may deter new inflows into stablecoins. There is a positive correlation between the market value of stablecoins and their trading volume, with USDT’s superior liquidity reinforcing its status as the market benchmark.

04Outlook and Recommendations

Operational Recommendations

• Liquidity Monitoring: The 24-hour trading volume of USDT reached $41.3B. If the daily trading volume drops by more than 20%, adopt a cautious approach within this week to avoid the risk of liquidity depletion.
• Sentiment Analysis: The Fear & Greed Index stands at 43/100. If the index falls below 30 and the trading volume of USDC shrinks, consider building positions in phases over the next 2 weeks to take advantage of panic-driven buying opportunities.

Risk Warnings

• Depegging Risk: The current price of USDT is $0.999. If it drops below $0.995, immediately reduce holdings as a precaution.
• Worsening Sentiment: If the sentiment index remains below 40 for an extended period, be alert to further market declines and set strict stop-loss levels.