CLARITY Bill Passage Odds Drop to 10% as SEC and CFTC Accelerate Actions

Galaxy Research lowers CLARITY Act passage probability to 10% due to legislative stalls. SEC may revive crypto exemptions while CFTC pursues prediction market jurisdiction amid regulatory shifts.

Woofun AI reports that Galaxy Research has reduced the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing by 2026 to 10%, citing stalled progress in the Senate Banking Committee. Obstacles include unresolved ethical guidelines for officials, pressure from community banks, and disputes over developer protections. With limited session time remaining in September, the Senate majority leader failed to schedule a vote before the August recess.

The SEC has postponed the "Reg Crypto" and "Innovation Exemption" proposals but may revive them within weeks or months given the bill's bleak prospects. These measures are expected to be time-limited sandbox solutions facing legal challenges.

Meanwhile, the CFTC is asserting jurisdiction over prediction market contracts, issuing emergency orders against New York state bans on Kalshi offerings. Analyst Alex Thorn notes that SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce's planned departure in November adds urgency to these regulatory efforts.