Fed September Rate Hike Probability Drops to 30.6% on Weak Retail Sales

Weak July U.S. retail sales data, down 0.6%, drives traders to slash September rate hike odds to 30.6%, with hold expectations rising to 69.4%.

Woofun AI data shows that as of August 14, the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September has fallen to 30.6%, while the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged stands at 69.4%.

This shift follows U.S. retail sales data for July, which declined by 0.6% month-over-month, marking the sharpest drop since May of the previous year and missing the expected 0.1% increase. The weaker-than-anticipated economic indicator has led traders to further diminish expectations for monetary tightening.