Spot Volume Hits 2019 Lows as BTC August Rally Probability Drops to 33%

Bitcoin spot trading volume collapses to 2019 levels while prediction markets assign only a 33% chance of BTC reaching $67,500 in August, signaling weak momentum.

Woofun AI data shows that Bitcoin spot trading volume has declined to its lowest level since 2019, coinciding with a drop in the probability of a BTC rally this month to 33%. On Polymarket, three investors wagered $5,700 against Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in August, resulting in a 65.2% probability for a 'no' outcome. Glassnode characterized the current market state as 'the late stage of bear market compression,' with price action confined between the median realized price of $63,000 and the short-term holder cost basis of $68,700. Despite favorable macroeconomic indicators, including a drop in core CPI to 2.5% and S&P 500 highs, Bitcoin remained range-bound between $63,000 and $65,000. While seller fatigue indicators are at cyclical lows, ETF inflows have not increased, and derivatives open interest remains high relative to spot demand.