Polymarket Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement Probability Drops 21% to 36% in 24 Hours

Prediction market odds for an Iran-Oman Hormuz Strait deal by late August fell 21% to 36%, while September prospects dropped 14% to 66%, reflecting shifting diplomatic expectations.

Woofun AI data shows that the probability of an Iran-Oman agreement on Hormuz Strait traffic issues by the end of August on Polymarket has declined to 36%, representing a 21% drop over the past 24 hours. Simultaneously, the likelihood of a deal by the end of September has fallen to 66%, marking a 14% decrease in the same period. The event criteria define a 'yes' outcome as a formal diplomatic agreement announced by both governments by 11:59 PM ET, verified through official statements or reliable reports. Iran's Supreme National Security Council previously stated that any such transit agreement would be separate from the broader Strait blockade issue, which remains contingent on the United States ending regional conflicts, releasing frozen Iranian funds, and accepting other conditions conveyed through intermediaries.