Goldman Sachs Estimates AI Capital Expenditures to Reach $600 Billion This Year

AI capex hits $600B, roughly 2% of US GDP. While driving sectoral gains in tech and energy, net GDP contribution is limited to 0.1pp by 2026 due to import reliance and capital crowding-out effects.

Woofun AI notes that Goldman Sachs identifies divergent market views on the macroeconomic impact of AI-related capital expenditures. Economists Jessica Rindels and David Mericle project that AI investments will total approximately $600 billion this year, representing about 2% of U.S. GDP, 10% of corporate fixed investment, and 15% of equipment investment. This volume sustains investor focus on NVIDIA, cloud providers, data centers, power equipment, and semiconductors.

However, the bank warns that direct GDP contributions are muted by significant hardware imports and resource diversion. Crowding-out effects manifest as cloud providers reallocating budgets from traditional services, data center construction displacing other commercial real estate, and AI debt financing elevating borrowing costs for other firms. Consequently, AI's net contribution to U.S. GDP growth by 2026 is estimated at only 0.1 percentage points, indicating that while AI reshapes capital flows and corporate profits, it does not single-handedly accelerate the broader U.S. economic cycle.