US July CPI Expected to Rise 0.1% MoM, Core Inflation Hits 2.5% YoY

Market consensus projects a 0.1% monthly CPI increase and 2.5% annual core inflation, potentially easing Fed rate hike concerns following weak labor data.

Woofun AI reports that institutional analysts project the U.S. Consumer Price Index to increase by 0.1% month-on-month in July, reversing a 0.4% decline in June. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated to rise 0.2% monthly, resulting in a 2.5% annual rate—the lowest year-on-year figure since February.

This potential slowdown in inflation pressures may alleviate Federal Reserve concerns regarding monetary tightening, particularly after three officials voted for a rate hike at the July 29 meeting. The data could reflect easing energy price impacts following the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February, with retail gasoline prices dipping below $4 per gallon early in July before recovering.

Additionally, stabilized aviation fuel costs may have contributed to a decline in airfare prices.