Fed September Hike Probability Drops 12% to 37% on Polymarket

Polymarket odds for a September Fed rate hike fell 12% to 37% following weak NFP data, while hold probabilities rose to 63%, shifting focus to upcoming CPI figures.

Woofun AI data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike in September on Polymarket declined to 37%, marking a 12% drop within 24 hours.

Concurrently, the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged rose to 63%, an increase of 14% over the same period.

This shift follows U.S. July NFP data showing a 23,000 job decrease, significantly missing the 80,000 forecast. Market attention now turns to CPI data set to be released next week. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management noted that if inflation figures exceed expectations significantly, internal calls for a rate hike may persist despite cooling employment signs.