US Non-farm Payrolls Expected to Rise 80,000 in July

Markets anticipate 80k new jobs and 4.2% unemployment for July. ADP data shows only 44k hires. Goldman Sachs warns of potential shortfall and historical underperformance in July figures.

Woofun AI reports that the U.S. July non-farm payroll report is scheduled for release at 20:30 tonight. Market consensus projects an addition of 80,000 jobs, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to remain at 3.5% annually and 0.3% monthly. Dow Jones and Wall Street Journal surveys indicate a slightly higher average expectation of 83,000 new jobs.

Contrasting data reveals ADP private-sector hiring at only 44,000. Goldman Sachs highlights that July figures frequently miss forecasts and undergo significant revisions. The labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2021, suggesting job market resilience stems from reduced labor supply rather than increased hiring demand.