ISM Manufacturing PMI Surges to 4-Year High, Fed Smart Money Bets on September Rate Hike

July ISM Manufacturing PMI hits 55.6, the highest since May 2022. Concurrently, Polymarket 'smart money' allocates $33k to a September rate hike, pushing odds to 54.5%.

Woofun AI data shows that two prominent Polymarket traders have committed $33.0k to the proposition of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate increase following the September 2026 meeting, elevating the 'Yes' probability to 54.5%. Trader -nkt- contributed $28.1k, leveraging an 82% success rate in Fed rate predictions, while Eatpraylove added $4.9k based on a 57% win rate in political markets.

The U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed from 53.3 to 55.6, marking its peak since May 2022. The new orders index reached 56.7, and the employment index rose to 52.8, signaling a return to expansion after 33 months. Input prices hit 71.1, with firms citing persistent costs for energy and metals. New York Fed President John Williams warned of potential rate hikes if inflation persists, noting the June PCE index rose 3.7% year-on-year. The Treasury raised its Q3 borrowing estimate to $739.0 billion, while the 10-year yield sits at 4.684%.